Several recent polls show President Joe Biden’s approval rating recovering to the mid-40s, while most polls still show a majority of respondents disapproving of his job performance. Biden’s current Presidential Approval Index rating is still -18, according to Rasmussen. This index measures the difference between likely voters who strongly approve of his job performance and those who strongly disapprove. Biden scores -18 among all likely voters.
It is probably logical to assume that most of those who strongly disapprove are Republicans. This finding works in the GOP’s favor headed into November since Rasmussen also reports that the party still has the edge in voter enthusiasm. The pollster found that 64% of Republicans are very excited about voting in the midterms, compared to 56% of Democrats.
While 49% of unaffiliated voters say that the issue of abortion rights will be very important in this year’s congressional elections, only 38% are very excited about voting. The finding is also offset by the fact that significantly more men than women, 57% to 49%, describe themselves as very excited about voting this November. Rasmussen’s findings indicate that 2022 will be a get-out-the-base cycle. A critical segment of the Democrats’ base is less than fired up — college-educated and minority women are a crucial voting bloc for Democrats.
It is also a challenge to determine why there is any bump in Biden’s approval based on economic trends and issues polling. Most voters select candidates based on how the current policy portfolio affects them and their families. Specifically, they look at the lower levels of Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs before they worry about the virtue-signaling that Democrats require. Americans want to be confident that they can meet their basic physiological needs for safety and security.
Right now, even the basics are at risk. While gas prices have fallen a bit, it is a temporary relief. As climate activist and author Michael Shellenberger wrote in July, Biden has no plan for energy after November:
And yet the leader of the free world, President Joe Biden, has no intention of significantly expanding American oil and gas production, and indeed has no energy plan beyond November, according to a senior oil and gas industry lobbyist who spoke on the condition of anonymity.
“There is no grand strategy,” the person said about Biden’s actions on oil and gas production.
Most of the gas price relief to date is the result of lower demand, as well as Biden’s releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserves. The former means Americans are traveling less, and the latter has significant national security implications given Vladimir Putin’s recent saber-rattling. Demand destruction is especially not a positive economic sign.
This is what happens when the global elite decides to push a political agenda by holding capital hostage unless their green energy plans are implemented. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink is thrilled energy prices are rising because it shrinks the “green premium.” And Fink has shoved a ton of other people’s money, mostly employees’ retirement savings funds and pensions, into green investments. His firm also lost 22% of assets under management in the first quarter of 2022.
Fink is also under the delusion that climate change is driving agriculture. Ridiculous government policy pushed by climate alarmists is reducing agricultural output. The war in Ukraine is reducing fertilizer supplies, and governments are capping nitrogen emissions.
The complete collapse of the food supply in Sri Lanka had everything to do with the globalists in the World Economic Forum driving emissions regulation and nothing to do with climate. The Netherlands and Canada are implementing similar policies. And the “Inflation Reduction Act” gave the EPA the power to regulate agricultural emissions in the United States. Any food shortages are far more manmade than climate change. And it is predicted that Americans may experience food insecurity for the first time since the early 20th century.
Additionally, the average American household will need to spend approximately $11,500 more in 2022 than in 2021 just to maintain its standard of living. Adding food insecurity to the equation will raise this premium significantly. And in New York City, evictions are steadily rising as rent costs rise precipitously due to eviction moratoriums and inflation. If that trend goes national, adequate shelter is at risk.
Another new poll from Convention of States Action and Trafalgar finds that a clear majority of Americans feel less safe than they did two years ago. This group includes a large majority of independent voters at 64% and almost half of Democrats polled.
“On the heels of our polling revealing that the majority of Americans believe President Biden is dividing our country, we now see Americans also feel less safe today than they did just two short years ago. Biden and his party are using divisive rhetoric and advocating for pro-criminal policies, and we are seeing the results firsthand in our nation today,” said Mark Meckler, President of the Convention of States.
With energy, food, and housing security all at risk, Democrats who are feeling optimistic about November should probably check their expectations. Ray Fair, professor of economics at Yale University, has been using bare-bones economic data to predict election outcomes since 1978. He usually comes within three percent of the final result.
Fair’s latest analysis, using data going back to 1916, suggests that Democrats will get 46.7% of the national vote in November. This is down from 51.3% in 2020 when Biden defeated Donald Trump and Democrats took control of the House and a slim majority in the Senate. And if his three-percent margin of error holds, Democrats will struggle to reach 50%.
While Fair will reportedly update his model before November, the economic headwinds don’t indicate a bump for Democrats, no matter what Biden’s approval rating is. Forget the niche issues like abortion; “It’s the economy, stupid.” And Republicans need to hammer that theme relentlessly between now and November 3.